Monitoring tropical forest carbon stocks and emissions using Planet satellite data.

Tropical forests are crucial for mitigating climate change, but many forests continue to be driven from carbon sinks to sources through human activities. To support more sustainable forest uses, we need to measure and monitor carbon stocks and emissions at high spatial and temporal resolution. We developed the first large-scale very high-resolution map of aboveground carbon stocks and emissions for the country of Peru by combining 6.7 million hectares of airborne LiDAR measurements of top-of-canopy height with thousands of Planet Dove satellite images into a random forest machine learning regression workflow, obtaining an R2 of 0.70 and RMSE of 25.38 Mg C ha-1 for the nationwide estimation of aboveground carbon density (ACD). The diverse ecosystems of Peru harbor 6.928 Pg C, of which only 2.9 Pg C are found in protected areas or their buffers. We found significant carbon emissions between 2012 and 2017 in areas aggressively affected by oil palm and cacao plantations, agricultural and urban expansions or illegal gold mining. Creating such a cost-effective and spatially explicit indicators of aboveground carbon stocks and emissions for tropical countries will serve as a transformative tool to quantify the climate change mitigation services that forests provide.

Landscape-Scale Controls on Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks on the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica.

Tropical forests store large amounts of carbon in tree biomass, although the environmental controls on forest carbon stocks remain poorly resolved. Emerging airborne remote sensing techniques offer a powerful approach to understand how aboveground carbon density (ACD) varies across tropical landscapes. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system to detect top-of-canopy tree height (TCH) and ACD across the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. LiDAR and field-estimated TCH and ACD were highly correlated across a wide range of forest ages and types. Top-of-canopy height (TCH) reached 67 m, and ACD surpassed 225 Mg C ha-1, indicating both that airborne CAO LiDAR-based estimates of ACD are accurate in tall, high-biomass forests and that the Osa Peninsula harbors some of the most carbon-rich forests in the Neotropics. We also examined the relative influence of lithologic, topoedaphic and climatic factors on regional patterns in ACD, which are known to influence ACD by regulating forest productivity and turnover. Analyses revealed a spatially nested set of factors controlling ACD patterns, with geologic variation explaining up to 16% of the mapped ACD variation at the regional scale, while local variation in topographic slope explained an additional 18%. Lithologic and topoedaphic factors also explained more ACD variation at 30-m than at 100-m spatial resolution, suggesting that environmental filtering depends on the spatial scale of terrain variation. Our result indicate that patterns in ACD are partially controlled by spatial variation in geologic history and geomorphic processes underpinning topographic diversity across landscapes. ACD also exhibited spatial autocorrelation, which may reflect biological processes that influence ACD, such as the assembly of species or phenotypes across the landscape, but additional research is needed to resolve how abiotic and biotic factors contribute to ACD variation across high biomass, high diversity tropical landscapes.

Targeted carbon conservation at national scales with high-resolution monitoring.

Terrestrial carbon conservation can provide critical environmental, social, and climate benefits. Yet, the geographically complex mosaic of threats to, and opportunities for, conserving carbon in landscapes remain largely unresolved at national scales. Using a new high-resolution carbon mapping approach applied to Perú, a megadiverse country undergoing rapid land use change, we found that at least 0.8 Pg of aboveground carbon stocks are at imminent risk of emission from land use activities. Map-based information on the natural controls over carbon density, as well as current ecosystem threats and protections, revealed three biogeographically explicit strategies that fully offset forthcoming land-use emissions. High-resolution carbon mapping affords targeted interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in rapidly developing tropical nations.

These are the days of lasers in the jungle.

For tropical forest carbon to be commoditized, a consistent, globally verifiable system for reporting and monitoring carbon stocks and emissions must be achieved. We call for a global airborne LiDAR campaign that will measure the 3-D structure of each hectare of forested (and formerly forested) land in the tropics. We believe such a database could be assembled for only 5% of funding already pledged to offset tropical forest carbon emissions.

Carbon storage landscapes of lowland Hawaii: the role of native and invasive species through space and time.

Tropical forests are important storehouses of carbon and biodiversity. In isolated island ecosystems such as the Hawaiian Islands, relative dominance of native and nonnative tree species may influence patterns of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity. We determined aboveground carbon density (ACD) across a matrix of lava flows differing in age, texture, and vegetation composition (i.e., native or nonnative dominated) in wet lowland forests of Hawaii Island. To do this at the large scales necessary to accurately capture the inherent heterogeneity of these forests, we collected LiDAR data across areas of interest and developed relationships between LiDAR metrics and field-based estimates of forest ACD. This approach enabled us to inventory, rather than merely sample, the entire populations (i.e., forests) of interest. Native Hawaiian wet lowland forests exhibited ACD values similar to those of intact tropical forests elsewhere. In general, ACD of these forests increased with increasing lava flow age, but patterns differed between native and nonnative forest stands. On the youngest lavas, native-dominated forest ACD averaged < 60 Mg/ha, compared to -100 Mg C/ha for nonnative-dominated forests. This difference was due to the presence of the nonnative, N2-fixing trees F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia in the nonnative-dominated forest stands, as well as the corresponding absence of N2-fixing trees in native-dominated forest stands. Following -500 years of primary succession and thereafter, however, both forest types exhibited ACD values averaging -130 Mg C/ha, although it took nonnative forests only 75 80 years of post-establishment succession to reach those values. Given the large areas of early-successional M. polymorpha-dominated forest on young lava flows, further spread of F. moluccana and C. equisetifolia populations would likely increase ACD stocks but would constitute a significant erosion of the invaluable contribution of Hawaii's native ecosystems to global biodiversity.

A tale of two "forests": random forest machine learning AIDS tropical forest carbon mapping.

Accurate and spatially-explicit maps of tropical forest carbon stocks are needed to implement carbon offset mechanisms such as REDD+ (Reduced Deforestation and Degradation Plus). The Random Forest machine learning algorithm may aid carbon mapping applications using remotely-sensed data. However, Random Forest has never been compared to traditional and potentially more reliable techniques such as regionally stratified sampling and upscaling, and it has rarely been employed with spatial data. Here, we evaluated the performance of Random Forest in upscaling airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-based carbon estimates compared to the stratification approach over a 16-million hectare focal area of the Western Amazon. We considered two runs of Random Forest, both with and without spatial contextual modeling by including--in the latter case--x, and y position directly in the model. In each case, we set aside 8 million hectares (i.e., half of the focal area) for validation; this rigorous test of Random Forest went above and beyond the internal validation normally compiled by the algorithm (i.e., called "out-of-bag"), which proved insufficient for this spatial application. In this heterogeneous region of Northern Peru, the model with spatial context was the best preforming run of Random Forest, and explained 59% of LiDAR-based carbon estimates within the validation area, compared to 37% for stratification or 43% by Random Forest without spatial context. With the 60% improvement in explained variation, RMSE against validation LiDAR samples improved from 33 to 26 Mg C ha(-1) when using Random Forest with spatial context. Our results suggest that spatial context should be considered when using Random Forest, and that doing so may result in substantially improved carbon stock modeling for purposes of climate change mitigation.

Hydrological networks and associated topographic variation as templates for the spatial organization of tropical forest vegetation.

An understanding of the spatial variability in tropical forest structure and biomass, and the mechanisms that underpin this variability, is critical for designing, interpreting, and upscaling field studies for regional carbon inventories. We investigated the spatial structure of tropical forest vegetation and its relationship to the hydrological network and associated topographic structure across spatial scales of 10-1000 m using high-resolution maps of LiDAR-derived mean canopy profile height (MCH) and elevation for 4930 ha of tropical forest in central Panama. MCH was strongly associated with the hydrological network: canopy height was highest in areas of positive convexity (valleys, depressions) close to channels draining 1 ha or more. Average MCH declined strongly with decreasing convexity (transition to ridges, hilltops) and increasing distance from the nearest channel. Spectral analysis, performed with wavelet decomposition, showed that the variance in MCH had fractal similarity at scales of ∼30-600 m, and was strongly associated with variation in elevation, with peak correlations at scales of ∼250 m. Whereas previous studies of topographic correlates of tropical forest structure conducted analyses at just one or a few spatial grains, our study found that correlations were strongly scale-dependent. Multi-scale analyses of correlations of MCH with slope, aspect, curvature, and Laplacian convexity found that MCH was most strongly related to convexity measured at scales of 20-300 m, a topographic variable that is a good proxy for position with respect to the hydrological network. Overall, our results support the idea that, even in these mesic forests, hydrological networks and associated topographical variation serve as templates upon which vegetation is organized over specific ranges of scales. These findings constitute an important step towards a mechanistic understanding of these patterns, and can guide upscaling and downscaling.

High-fidelity national carbon mapping for resource management and REDD+.

BACKGROUND: High fidelity carbon mapping has the potential to greatly advance national resource management and to encourage international action toward climate change mitigation. However, carbon inventories based on field plots alone cannot capture the heterogeneity of carbon stocks, and thus remote sensing-assisted approaches are critically important to carbon mapping at regional to global scales. We advanced a high-resolution, national-scale carbon mapping approach applied to the Republic of Panama - one of the first UN REDD + partner countries. RESULTS: Integrating measurements of vegetation structure collected by airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with field inventory plots, we report LiDAR-estimated aboveground carbon stock errors of ~10% on any 1-ha land parcel across a wide range of ecological conditions. Critically, this shows that LiDAR provides a highly reliable replacement for inventory plots in areas lacking field data, both in humid tropical forests and among drier tropical vegetation types. We then scale up a systematically aligned LiDAR sampling of Panama using satellite data on topography, rainfall, and vegetation cover to model carbon stocks at 1-ha resolution with estimated average pixel-level uncertainty of 20.5 Mg C ha-1 nationwide. CONCLUSIONS: The national carbon map revealed strong abiotic and human controls over Panamanian carbon stocks, and the new level of detail with estimated uncertainties for every individual hectare in the country sets Panama at the forefront in high-resolution ecosystem management. With this repeatable approach, carbon resource decision-making can be made on a geospatially explicit basis, enhancing human welfare and environmental protection.

Human and environmental controls over aboveground carbon storage in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Accurate, high-resolution mapping of aboveground carbon density (ACD, Mg C ha-1) could provide insight into human and environmental controls over ecosystem state and functioning, and could support conservation and climate policy development. However, mapping ACD has proven challenging, particularly in spatially complex regions harboring a mosaic of land use activities, or in remote montane areas that are difficult to access and poorly understood ecologically. Using a combination of field measurements, airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and satellite data, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution estimates of aboveground carbon stocks in Madagascar. RESULTS: We found that elevation and the fraction of photosynthetic vegetation (PV) cover, analyzed throughout forests of widely varying structure and condition, account for 27-67% of the spatial variation in ACD. This finding facilitated spatial extrapolation of LiDAR-based carbon estimates to a total of 2,372,680 ha using satellite data. Remote, humid sub-montane forests harbored the highest carbon densities, while ACD was suppressed in dry spiny forests and in montane humid ecosystems, as well as in most lowland areas with heightened human activity. Independent of human activity, aboveground carbon stocks were subject to strong physiographic controls expressed through variation in tropical forest canopy structure measured using airborne LiDAR. CONCLUSIONS: High-resolution mapping of carbon stocks is possible in remote regions, with or without human activity, and thus carbon monitoring can be brought to highly endangered Malagasy forests as a climate-change mitigation and biological conservation strategy.

A universal airborne LiDAR approach for tropical forest carbon mapping.

Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is fast turning the corner from demonstration technology to a key tool for assessing carbon stocks in tropical forests. With its ability to penetrate tropical forest canopies and detect three-dimensional forest structure, LiDAR may prove to be a major component of international strategies to measure and account for carbon emissions from and uptake by tropical forests. To date, however, basic ecological information such as height-diameter allometry and stand-level wood density have not been mechanistically incorporated into methods for mapping forest carbon at regional and global scales. A better incorporation of these structural patterns in forests may reduce the considerable time needed to calibrate airborne data with ground-based forest inventory plots, which presently necessitate exhaustive measurements of tree diameters and heights, as well as tree identifications for wood density estimation. Here, we develop a new approach that can facilitate rapid LiDAR calibration with minimal field data. Throughout four tropical regions (Panama, Peru, Madagascar, and Hawaii), we were able to predict aboveground carbon density estimated in field inventory plots using a single universal LiDAR model (r ( 2 ) = 0.80, RMSE = 27.6 Mg C ha(-1)). This model is comparable in predictive power to locally calibrated models, but relies on limited inputs of basal area and wood density information for a given region, rather than on traditional plot inventories. With this approach, we propose to radically decrease the time required to calibrate airborne LiDAR data and thus increase the output of high-resolution carbon maps, supporting tropical forest conservation and climate mitigation policy.

High-resolution forest carbon stocks and emissions in the Amazon.

Efforts to mitigate climate change through the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) depend on mapping and monitoring of tropical forest carbon stocks and emissions over large geographic areas. With a new integrated use of satellite imaging, airborne light detection and ranging, and field plots, we mapped aboveground carbon stocks and emissions at 0.1-ha resolution over 4.3 million ha of the Peruvian Amazon, an area twice that of all forests in Costa Rica, to reveal the determinants of forest carbon density and to demonstrate the feasibility of mapping carbon emissions for REDD. We discovered previously unknown variation in carbon storage at multiple scales based on geologic substrate and forest type. From 1999 to 2009, emissions from land use totaled 1.1% of the standing carbon throughout the region. Forest degradation, such as from selective logging, increased regional carbon emissions by 47% over deforestation alone, and secondary regrowth provided an 18% offset against total gross emissions. Very high-resolution monitoring reduces uncertainty in carbon emissions for REDD programs while uncovering fundamental environmental controls on forest carbon storage and their interactions with land-use change.